Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
